Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.