🔗 Share this article

Just two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, but block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and emerged as a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win while missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of votes added later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible in which election day turned out somewhat badly for him, in which the opponent was going to end up basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani added half a million votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: multiracial, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump previously went for the progressive this year. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at 50.4% but remain probably 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he does so then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I believe occurred a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. But no, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election there was coverage on if the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in America can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in America – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities exist.